The Truth of Messages from Beyond

Modern UFO Cults and Oracular Prophecy in Herodotus

Abstract

Current scholarship on the topic of ‘failed prophecy’, both in social psychology and Classics, seeks to explain how groups continue to believe in prophetic truth even after ‘failures’. In this paper, I critically examine the current research to show that this etic (outsider) approach collapses a meaningful distinction between prophetic signs and their interpretations. Going in a different direction, I use evidence for the continuity of belief in prophetic truth from Herodotus’ Histories and studies on new religious and millennial movements to develop an emic (insider’s) understanding of what prophecy and prophetic truth are among believers. In so doing, I demonstrate a consonance in thinking about prophecy between ancient and modern groups of believers and distinguish three types of prophetic truth in which such groups may come to believe: fulfilled truth, expectational truth and conditional truth. I conclude by arguing that it is only ever a specific expectation, framed by a particular (usually literal and conventional) interpretation of a prophecy – not the prophecy itself – that may be understood as proven false. This clearer delineation of prophetic sign and prophetic meaning have benefits for interpreting Herodotus’ Histories and for understanding those who believe in prophecy today.