Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Quantifizierung und Modellierung von antiken Handels-Transportbedingungen – aus ökonomischer Sicht

Abstract

What can economic history contribute to a “simulation of trade and transport in the ancient world”? Assuming freight costs in absolute figures is misleading, it is more correct to express profits and costs of commercial transactions as a proportion of the value of goods and never to lose sight of the profitability of such transactions. The state of research on the ranges of trade in ancient times (local, regional and long-distance trade) provides results that are far too rough and cannot form the basis for a simulation. A method is proposed here which, based on trading events known from sources, summarizes profits, costs and profitability in mathematical equations/algorithms. The respective variables of the equation are then adjusted step by step in order to achieve a reasonable profitability. The values found in this way are adjusted and at the same time gradually consolidated on the basis of various trading events. Such equations could possibly be used in a simulation of trade and transport. Of course, separate models would have to be created for specific groups of goods, modes of transport, regions and time periods. Whether such a collection of rather complex models could serve as a basis for a “simulation of trade and transport in antiquity” seems questionable.